Hello to everyone,
today my first article about Ukraine, its history and European vector was published by the Pakistany magazine "The Diplomatic Insight".
Muhammad Asif Noor, the Chief Editor of the magazine, has decided to publish Special issue of The Diplomatic Insight on Ukraine. This issue was devoted to celebration of 22nd of Independence of Ukraine.
I highly appreciate this offer to write about Ukraine. Hope you like my article))
Follow the link above and you can find my article in the pages 9-10. I use Adobe Flash Player to read it.
For someone who could not read my article in The Diplomatic Insight I post this text below.
European vector for Ukraine
This autumn Ukraine
has faced with a difficult political choice: the Association with the European Union or the Customs Union?
"Ukraine’s signing of the Association Agreement
with the European Union will close its entrance to the Customs Union of Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan," Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said.
EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European
Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Füle stressed the incompatibility of membership in
the Customs Union with the signing of the agreement on a deep and comprehensive
free trade area with the EU.
"It
is true that the Customs Union membership is not compatible with the DCFTAs
which we have negotiated with Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Georgia, and
Armenia. This is not because of ideological differences; this is not about a
clash of economic blocs, or a zero-sum game. This is due to legal
impossibilities: for instance, you cannot at the same time lower your customs
tariffs as per the DCFTA and increase them as a result of the Customs Union
membership," the commissioner said.
Ideally, Kyiv would like to combine a privileged economic relationship with Russia with a free trade regime with the EU. Brussels, however, has made it clear that the agreement is incompatible with membership in the Customs Union.
Thus, Ukrainian leaders should make their choice between the EU and Russia’s mutually exclusive alternatives. Obviously, history has a way of repeating itself. Rada, an institution of Cossack administration in Ukraine, faced three alternatives in 17th century. Why Rada chose the allegiance to Muscovy? What will be Ukrainian future choice: Europe or Russia?
Ideally, Kyiv would like to combine a privileged economic relationship with Russia with a free trade regime with the EU. Brussels, however, has made it clear that the agreement is incompatible with membership in the Customs Union.
Thus, Ukrainian leaders should make their choice between the EU and Russia’s mutually exclusive alternatives. Obviously, history has a way of repeating itself. Rada, an institution of Cossack administration in Ukraine, faced three alternatives in 17th century. Why Rada chose the allegiance to Muscovy? What will be Ukrainian future choice: Europe or Russia?
Historical background
Ukraine was the center of the first eastern Slavic
state, Kyivan Rus. It was the largest and most powerful state in Europe during
the 10th and 11th centuries. Kyiv, the capital of modern
Ukraine, became the most important city of the Rus.
Weakened by Mongol invasions in the 13th
century, Kyivan Rus was incorporated into the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and
eventually into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Ukraine lost its independence for the centuries, but the
cultural and religious legacy of Kyivan Rus laid the foundation for Ukrainian
nationalism. Ukrainians had several attempts to reach their independence
through subsequent centuries.
A new Ukrainian state, the Cossack Hetmanate, was
established during the mid-17th century after an uprising against the Poles.
Russian vector for Ukraine
In 1648, Bohdan Khmelnytsky led the largest of
the Cossack uprisings against
the Commonwealth and the Polish king John II Casimir. Left-bank Ukraine was
eventually integrated into Muscovite Russia. Cossack Rada faced the
alternatives of subjection to Poland, allegiance to Turkey, or allegiance to
Muscovy and chose the latter.
The Cossack Hetmanate
recorded a military and political alliance with Russia in the 1654 Treaty of
Pereyaslav. The Hetman
Bogdan Khmelnytsky acknowledged loyalty to the Russian Czar.
In 1686 Russia and Poland divided Ukraine in two
parts. Kyiv and the Cossack lands east of the Dnieper were over to Russian rule
and the Ukrainian lands west of the Dnieper to Poland. It led to the division
of Ukrainians for centuries and became the key factor of appearance the
pro-Western and pro-Russian elements in Ukrainian society.
Modern politicians still use this split of Ukraine in
their campaigns, the ethnically and culturally differences between the Eastern
industrial parts dominated by ethnic Russians (estimated 17 per cent of the
total population) and the Western agricultural regions populated by ethnic
Ukrainians.
Despite the promises of Ukrainian autonomy given by
the Treaty of Pereyaslav, the Ukrainian elite and the Cossacks never received
the freedoms and the autonomy they were expecting from Imperial Russia. During
the latter part of the 18th century, most Ukrainian ethnographic territory was
absorbed by the Russian Empire.
Following the collapse of czarist Russia in 1917,
Ukraine was able to achieve a short-lived period of independence (1917-20), but
was reconquered and forced to endure a brutal Soviet rule that engineered two
forced famines (1921-22 and 1932-33) in which over 8 million died.
In World War II, German and Soviet armies were
responsible for some 7 to 8 million more deaths. Although final independence
for Ukraine was achieved in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Independence
The great dream of millions of Ukrainians about the
independent state of Ukraine came true.
On August 24, 1991 the Ukrainian parliament adopted
the Act of
Independence in
which the parliament declared Ukraine as an independent democratic state.
A referendum and the first presidential elections took place on December 1, 1991. That day, more than
90 percent of the Ukrainian people expressed their support for the Act of
Independence, and they elected the chairman of the parliament, Leonid Kravchuk to
serve as the first President of the country.
Orange revolution
In November and December 2004, the Ukrainian ‘Orange
Revolution’ was covering front pages of newspapers and media primetime all
around the world. Was it a belated political change resembling the 1989
revolutions in the Soviet bloc countries, or a clash of geopolitical interests
between the West and Putin’s Russia echoing the Cold War logic?
A peaceful mass protest "Orange Revolution"
in the closing months of 2004 forced the authorities to overturn a rigged
presidential election and to allow a new internationally monitored vote that
swept into power a reformist slate under Viktor Yushchenko. Subsequent internal
squabbles in the Yushchenko camp allowed his rival Viktor Yanukovych to stage a
comeback in parliamentary elections and become prime minister in August of
2006.
An early legislative election, brought on by a
political crisis in the spring of 2007, saw Yuliya Tymoshenko, as head of an
"Orange" coalition, installed as a new prime minister in December
2007.
Viktor Yanukovych was elected president in a February
2010 run-off election that observers assessed as meeting most international
standards. The following month, Ukraine's parliament, the Rada, approved a vote
of no-confidence prompting Yuliya Tymoshenko to resign from her post as prime
minister.
In October 2012, Ukraine held Rada elections, widely
criticized by Western observers as flawed due to use of government resources to
favor ruling party candidates, interference with media access, and harassment
of opposition candidates.
EU – Ukraine Relations
Ukraine is an
important country to the Europeans in terms of economy and size. It has the
second largest population (45 million people) and economy ($176 billion) of all
former Soviet states, trailing only Russia in both categories. These factors,
along with its relatively high per-capita gross domestic product, make Ukraine
an attractive market — and asset — to outside powers.
Relations
between the EU and Ukraine are currently based on the Partnership and
Co-operation Agreement (PCA) which entered into force in 1998. At the Paris
Summit in 2008 the leaders of the EU and Ukraine agreed that an Association
Agreement should be the successor agreement to the Partnership and Co-operation
Agreement.
The EU-Ukraine
Association Agreement is the first of a new generation of Association
Agreements with Eastern Partnership countries. Negotiations of this
comprehensive, ambitious and innovative Agreement between the EU and Ukraine
were launched in March 2007.
In February
2008, following confirmation of Ukraine’s WTO membership, the EU and Ukraine
launched negotiations on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) as a
core element of the Association Agreement.
At the 15th
Ukraine-EU Summit of 19 December 2011, the EU leaders and President Yanukovych
noted that a common understanding on the text of the Association Agreement was
reached.
On 30 of March
2012 the chief negotiators of the European Union and Ukraine initialed the text
of the Association Agreement, which included provisions on the establishment of
a DCFTA as an integral part. In this context, chief trade negotiators from both
sides initialed the DCFTA part of the Agreement on 19 July 2012.
Both EU and
Ukraine expressed their common commitment to undertake further technical steps,
required to prepare conclusion of the Association Agreement.
Eurasian Customs Union – Ukraine Relations
Ukraine is important to the Europeans, but it is
crucial to Russia, for reasons transcending economic and trade ties. In the
battle for influence over Ukraine, the Russians have an advantage, but Kyiv
will continue entertaining both sides to extract as many concessions as it can.
Since Vladimir Putin’s return as Russian president,
Ukraine has been a target of Moscow’s attempts to have it accede to the
Eurasian Customs Union. The Ukrainian opposition and national-minded analysts
have expressed concerns that President Viktor Yanukovych may cede to the
pressure. This, however, is unlikely. Gains for either the country or the
regime are too uncertain and insufficient to persuade Ukraine to break away
from its balancing act in foreign policy.
Ukrainian public opinion is polarized between European
and Eurasian options. Accession to the Customs Union would mobilize a range of
supporters and opponents.
In a December 2012 poll by the Kyiv-based Razumkov
Center, 42 percent of respondents preferred to join the EU while 32 percent
opted for the Customs Union (with 10.5 percent choosing neither). A poll the
same month by the Social Monitoring Center found, on the contrary, that 46
percent of respondents were in favor of Customs Union accession while 35
percent preferred free trade with the EU and eventual membership.
Either way, these results imply that as an electoral
slogan the Customs Union is a double-edged sword. As well, parliamentary
ratification of the accession agreement cannot be taken for granted. Resistance
may come not only from pro-European opposition groups but also MPs representing
Ukrainian businesses who lobbied for the country’s entry into the WTO in 2008
and who currently favor free trade policies with the EU.
Meanwhile, the economic benefits of Customs Union
membership, if any, would probably come too late to be felt by the wider
population before the next round of elections in 2015.
Conclusion – European vector for Ukraine
Eastern Europeans see a titanic contest between Moscow
and Brussels for Ukraine. The decisive moment may come at November’s Vilnius
summit between the EU and the six members of the “Eastern Partnership”: three
countries bordering the EU (Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova) and three from the
Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan).
"We believe that over time, the Association
Agreement will lead to increased productivity, wages, stimulates economic
growth and new employment opportunities. Thanks to that, Ukrainian producers
will be able to compete effectively and gain a place in the European market,
find your niche and promote the production of high-quality Ukrainian products
for a good price. Ukrainian consumers, in turn, will have access to
high-quality European products at lower prices," head of the EU Delegation
to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski said.
Ukraine has negotiated an Association agreement on
political co-operation, including respect for democratic norms and the rule of
law. It has also agreed on a deep and comprehensive free-trade agreement that
would extend a large part of the EU’s body of law eastward. The hope is that at
the summit Ukraine will sign the deal. It will be a crucial step in eliminating
the old political practices and making the political system publicly
accountable and subject to the rule of law. Ukraine, the country of 45 million
people, would certainly deserve it.
No comments:
Post a Comment